Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 11, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
AC Milan1 - 1Cagliari
We said: AC Milan 3-0 Cagliari
Fired up by a fresh face in the dugout, Milan are well set to continue their dominance of this week's visitors - albeit they remain far from flawless. Nearly half the 32 league goals Cagliari have conceded this term followed set pieces - a league high of 14 - so the hosts will surely pay particular attention to that glaring weakness. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 67.05%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 13.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Cagliari |
67.05% ( 0.04) | 19.43% ( -0.04) | 13.52% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.42% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.29% ( 0.13) | 43.71% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.9% ( 0.13) | 66.1% ( -0.13) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.91% ( 0.05) | 12.09% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 62.36% ( 0.11) | 37.64% ( -0.11) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.22% ( 0.07) | 43.78% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.06% ( 0.06) | 79.94% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
AC Milan 67.04%
Cagliari 13.52%
Draw 19.43%
| AC Milan | Draw | Cagliari |
| 2-0 @ 11.81% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.32% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 67.04% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.87% Total : 19.43% | 0-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 3.82% 0-2 @ 1.81% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 1.36% Total : 13.52% |
How you voted: AC Milan vs Cagliari
AC Milan
92.2%Draw
6.5%Cagliari
1.3%77
Form Guide
