Serie A | Gameweek 35
May 4, 2025 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma1 - 0Fiorentina
We said: Roma 1-0 Fiorentina
Not only are Fiorentina much more flaky on the road, Roma have made Stadio Olimpico a fortress again - so the home side should edge a close contest. Also benefitting from more rest than the Viola, who are between two legs of a European semi-final, Claudio Ranieri's men can keep their top-four challenge on track. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 52.24%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Fiorentina |
52.24% ( 0.66) | 24.68% ( -0.15) | 23.08% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 50.77% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.9% ( 0.13) | 51.09% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.05% ( 0.11) | 72.95% ( -0.11) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.47% ( 0.32) | 19.53% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.57% ( 0.51) | 51.43% ( -0.51) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.1% ( -0.4) | 36.9% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.31% ( -0.4) | 73.69% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
Roma 52.24%
Fiorentina 23.08%
Draw 24.67%
| Roma | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 1-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 9.61% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 52.24% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.96% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.74% Total : 23.08% |
How you voted: Roma vs Fiorentina
Roma
88.3%Draw
6.7%Fiorentina
5.0%60
