Maccabi Tel Aviv play host to Sivasspor on Thursday night knowing that a draw will be enough to book their place in the Europa League knockout stages.
However, victory for Sivasspor will see the Turkish outfit replace their hosts in second place in Group I, earning them a spot in the last 32.
Match preview
© Reuters
When Maccabi Tel Aviv and Sivasspor were placed alongside each other in Group I, both clubs would have recognised that it represented an excellent opportunity to reach the next phase of the competition.
While Maccabi have only progressed through to the group stages on one occasion in their history, Sivasspor are making their debut in this tournament.
With one match remaining, these two teams go head to head with everything to play for, and each manager will be confident of earning their desired result come full time.
Giorgos Donis witnessed his Maccabi side only claim a share of the spoils against Qarabag FK last week, but they have shown enough quality in previous matches to suggest that they are capable of avoiding defeat at the Bloomfield Stadium.
They will also be motivated to bounce back from Sunday's shock defeat at Ashdod with their hosts scoring twice during the closing quarter to claim a 3-2 victory.
On the other hand, Sivasspor were agonisingly close to going three matches unbeaten in this group, ultimately suffering a home defeat to Villarreal courtesy of a 75th-minute winner.
Although Riza Calimbay's side have now gone three matches without success in all competitions, they backed up their performance against the group winners with a share of the spoils at Trabzonspor on Sunday.
Maccabi emerged victorious in the reverse fixture between the clubs on October 28, overturning a deficit to win by a 2-1 scoreline, and that result is currently the difference between second and third place.
Maccabi Tel Aviv Europa League form: WWLDD
Maccabi Tel Aviv form (all competitions): WWDWDL
Sivasspor Europa League form: LLWWL
Sivasspor form (all competitions): LDWLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Calimbay is currently working with a restricted squad and Olanrewaju Kayode is again expected to be ruled out for Sivasspor.
The starting XI could resemble the one which featured in Europe last week with Mustapha Yatabare in line to head the attack.
Maccabi will be able to call upon Saborit, who sat out the last encounter through a one-match ban.
The return of the left-back gives Donis the option of reverting to a back four, like he did when his side claimed a point against Villarreal.
Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting lineup:
Tenenbaum; Kandil, Tibi, Hernandez, Saborit; Biton, Glazer, Peretz, Cohen; Golasa, Pesic
Sivasspor possible starting lineup:
Samassa; Osmanpasa, Appindangoye, Camara, Erdal; Cofie, Fajr; Oztekin, Yalcin, Gradel; Yatabare
We say: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 Sivasspor
With neither of these clubs that familiar with the knockout stages of European competition, expect a tense affair to be played out in Israel. While Sivasspor have proven their attacking qualities throughout the group, we are backing the home side to claim a hard-fought share of the spoils.
Top betting tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maccabi Tel Aviv win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Sivasspor had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Sivasspor win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maccabi Tel Aviv would win this match.
