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[monks data]
Attendance: 20,496
Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 29
Mar 7, 2020 at 5.30pm UK
 
Spurs logo

1-1

Wood (13')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Alli (50' pen.)

Preview: Burnley vs. Tottenham Hotspur - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur, including predictions and team news.

Tottenham Hotspur will be looking to get their season back on track when they face Burnley at Turf Moor in Saturday's late Premier League kickoff.

Spurs were knocked out of the FA Cup by Norwich City in midweek and have lost four games in a row, leaving their campaign on the brink of tatters.


Match preview

Tottenham Hotspur manager Jose Mourinho reacts on February 2, 2020© Reuters

Sandwiched between defeats to RB Leipzig in the Champions League and Norwich in the FA Cup, Spurs have also lost back-to-back league matches against Chelsea and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Teams around them may also be struggling for form, but Tottenham have slipped to seventh and are now three points off the top four, while fifth-placed Manchester United are two points better off.

To make matters worse for Jose Mourinho, he witnessed Eric Dier confront a supporter after Wednesday's penalty shootout loss to Norwich, an incident that may land the versatile midfielder in trouble with the Football Association.

Mourinho's honeymoon period, if there ever was one, is over and Tottenham are now in desperate need of three points in Lancashire on Saturday.

The bad news for Spurs is that Burnley are in good form, the Clarets having won two and drawn two of their last four league games to move into the top half of the division.

Burnley's Jay Rodriguez celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates as Manchester United's Mason Greenwood looks dejected on January 22, 2020© Reuters

If Manchester City's European ban is upheld, an extra Europa League spot will be up for grabs and Sean Dyche's men - now just two points behind Spurs - are well positioned to take advantage.

Burnley's strong recent run has been built on a solid defence, with Nick Pope strengthening claims that he should be England's number one at this summer's European Championship finals by keeping three clean sheets in four matches.

In fact, only Liverpool (12) have kept more shutouts than Burnley's 11 in the Premier League this season. Up the other end, however, the Clarets have failed to score in two of their last four.

Dyche's side still have Tottenham, Man City and Liverpool to face in their remaining 10 matches, but a second season of European football in three seasons is still a possibility.

Beating Tottenham this weekend would see Burnley leapfrog their opponents and send out a message to the rest of the division.

However, they have won just two of their 11 Premier League meetings with Spurs, albeit with both of those wins coming at Turf Moor.

Burnley's Premier League form: WWDWWD
Burnley's form (all competitions): WLDWWD

Tottenham Hotspur's Premier League form: DWWWLL
Tottenham Hotspur's form (all competitions): WWLLLL


Team News

Tottenham Hotspur manager Jose Mourinho with Harry Kane as he goes off injured on January 1, 2020© Reuters

Mourinho is without big hitters Son Heung-min and Harry Kane for the foreseeable future, though the latter suggested this week he could return to action next month.

Moussa Sissoko is Tottenham's other long-term absentee, while Erik Lamela is still struggling for fitness, Hugo Lloris is carrying a groin injury and Ryan Sessegnon is also doubtful.

Dier is facing FA action for his confrontation with a fan against Norwich, but he is unlikely to be suspended for Saturday's trip to Turf Moor.

Mourinho gave a chance to young striker Troy Parrott against Norwich, but he is expected to revert back to a front three of Lucas Moura, Dele Alli and Steven Bergwijn this weekend.

Alli has been directly involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games against Burnley, scoring twice and assisting four.

Burnley striker Chris Wood has not started a game for a month due to a hamstring injury, giving Matej Vydra a chance to shine in recent matches.

However, Wood made a substitute appearance from the bench in the goalless draw at Newcastle United last week and could come into the side in place of Vydra here.

Ashley Barnes, Matthew Lowton and Johan Berg Gudmundsson all remain on the sidelines.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Bardsley, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Hendrick, Westwood, Cork, McNeil; Wood, Rodriguez

Tottenham possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Aurier, Alderweireld, Sanchez, Davies; Ndombele, Winks, Lo Celso; Lucas, Alli, Bergwijn


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Burnley 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Burnley enter this match in far better form than Tottenham and can overtake their opponents in the table with victory at Turf Moor. Mourinho needs to stop the rot and a point in Lancashire will likely be welcomed ahead of a big clash with Leipzig next week.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest win was 1-0 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%).


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Tottenham Hotspur manager Jose Mourinho reacts on February 2, 2020
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