Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Dec 22, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio da Madeira (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))
Nacional1 - 3Braga
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia (6-5 pen.)
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Nacional 0-3 Braga
While Nacional have been very good in Liga Portugal 2 this season, they face a huge step up in class of opponents here and are likely to struggle to claim a point in this group. Despite Braga heading into this match following back-to-back cup and league defeats, we fancy the Primeira Liga outfit to secure the win and their place in the next round. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 23.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
23.14% ( -0.02) | 22.06% ( -0.01) | 54.8% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.44% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
