Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 12, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
0 - 5
Braga

(Braga win 7-2 on aggregate)

Vieira (75')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Racic (25', 53' pen.), Pizzi (43'), Banza (76' pen., 90+1')
Racic (47'), Pizzi (57')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Nacional and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Casa Pia 2-5 Nacional
Thursday, February 9 at 5.30pm in Taca de Portugal

Braga

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Braga 4-1 Estoril
Saturday, April 8 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Having conceded nine goals without scoring across their last three matches, Nacional look destined to struggle against Braga, who should secure a fifth victory in six outings to put one foot in the Taca de Portugal final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 56.16%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 21.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.88%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Braga
21.04% ( 0.8)	22.8% ( 0.27)	56.16% ( -1.08)

Both teams to score 53.95% (

0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.46% (

-0.14)

45.54% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.13% (

-0.13)

67.87% (

0.13)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.25% (

0.73)

35.75% (

-0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.48% (

0.74)

72.52% (

-0.75)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.97% (

-0.42)

16.03% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.62% (

-0.77)

45.38% (

0.76)

Score Analysis

Nacional 21.04%

Braga 56.16%

Draw 22.8%

Nacional	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.87% Total : 21.04%	1-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.8%	0-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 9.6% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 6.03% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 5.86% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 2.68% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.35% Total : 56.16%