Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round

Nov 10, 2022 at 11am UK

Estádio Nacional

Belenenses
4 - 0
Machico

Jefferson (2'), Lopes (17'), Coxixo (23' pen.), Boni (55')

FT(HT: 3-0)

(85')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Fourth Round clash between Belenenses and Machico.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belenenses

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 0-0 Belenenses
Saturday, May 14 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 55.16%. A win for Machico had a probability of 22.87% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Machico win was 1-2 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.

Result
Belenenses	Draw	Machico
55.16% ( 0.63)	21.97% ( -0.4)	22.87% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 59.38% (

1.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.44% (

1.59)

39.56% (

-1.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.09% (

1.63)

61.9% (

-1.64)

Belenenses Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.7% (

0.75)

14.29% (

-0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.89% (

1.44)

42.1% (

-1.45)

Machico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.29% (

0.68)

30.7% (

-0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.04% (

0.79)

66.96% (

-0.8)

Score Analysis

Belenenses 55.16%

Machico 22.87%

Draw 21.97%

Belenenses	Draw	Machico
2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.25% Total : 55.16%	1-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 4.39% ( -0.33) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.97%	1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.85% Total : 22.87%