New York City FC will look to continue their four-game unbeaten streak when they travel to Toronto this Sunday as the Pigeons aim to climb the league table.
The Reds suffered their first loss in five games at the hands of Philadelphia Union last time out, as they now sit just one point above bottom.
Match preview
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The Pigeons are currently just two points behind second-placed Orlando City, and have the chance to climb the table and continue to strengthen their grip on an MLS Cup Playoff position with a victory against Toronto.
New York City have not missed out on a top-seven finish since their first season in the MLS Eastern Conference in 2015, with fifth place being the lowest they have managed since that point.
Ronny Deila has done everything right so far this season, and his squad heads into this fixture on the back of four games without a defeat, which has featured three victories and a draw.
Their most recent game saw them share the spoils with Chicago Fire FC, although they had to deal with having 10 men for the final five minutes, but prior to that New York had been in devastating form.
Deila's side earned three consecutive victories at the end of July, scoring 10 goals in the process, which included them blowing away Orlando City 5-0, and only league leaders New England Revolution have scored more goals than them this season.
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New York's impressive form in front of goal, particularly with Jesus Medina who has scored seven goals in 15 appearances, could be set to continue due to the fact that no team has conceded more in the MLS Eastern Conference than Toronto.
Plus, Deila has not neglected the defensive side of the game either, with his team only conceding 16 goals this season, a record only topped by Nashville SC, who have let in 15 goals.
However, on the road, the Pigeons have had difficulties throughout the season, securing only two wins out of a possible seven games so far, yet Toronto have struggled at home, with only one victory at BMO Field to this point.
Javier Perez is continuing to do his best in caretaker charge of the Reds, which is a role he undertook early in July after a poor start to the season led to Chris Armas being dismissed, and it has seen major improvements take place.
The defeat to Philadelphia marked the first time Toronto had lost with Perez in charge, as he has guided the team to two victories and three draws since being given the job.
The Canadian club needs that momentum to continue moving forward, being just two points behind FC Cincinnati in 10th, with a real run of results needed if the team is going to end up anywhere near the second-placed finish they achieved last season.
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Team News
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New York City will be missing Keaton Parks for this game due to his red card in their recent 0-0 with Chicago in the 73rd minute, which will force changes in the middle of the park.
However, Deila does have goalkeeper Sean Johnson back following the Gold Cup, and he started straight away against Chicago, while James Sands is also now available following the international tournament.
Even though those two players are now eligible again, the Pigeons will still be without Heber due to his knee injury, while Talles Magno missed the previous match over concerns about a knee problem.
Toronto have been hampered with some major injury issues in the attacking side of the squad lately, with both Ayo Akinola and Ifunanyachi Achara remaining on the sidelines.
However, it is not just up top where the problems have been for Perez, as reliable defender Auro is also out injured, although there could be some good news as winger Tsubasa Endoh is due back in the near future, and could be in contention to make the squad on Sunday.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Laryea, Zavaleta, Gonzalez, Mavinga, Lawrence; Bradley, Delgado, Osorio; Soteldo, Altidore
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Tinnerholm, Chanot, Amundsen, Sands; Morales, Acevedo; Medina, Rocha, Andrade; Castellanos
We say: Toronto 0-2 New York City FC
These are two teams at opposite ends of the table, and because of that New York City are the clear favorites heading into the game, with their goalscoring form as of late being something that will cause Toronto major problems.
While Perez has made drastic improvements to the Canadian outfit, there is still a lot of work to be done with the side and this could prove too much at this juncture.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
