Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 41.48%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.