Connah's Quay

3 - 1

Caernarfon

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 25.07% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.