World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Mar 24, 2022 at 9.10am UK

Australia
0 - 2
Japan

Metcalfe (15'), Stensness (55')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mitoma (89', 90+4')
Nagatomo (10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

Last Six:

Last Game: UAE 1-2 Australia
Tuesday, June 7 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Next Game: Australia vs. New Zealand
Sunday, September 25 at 4am in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	3	2	7
2	Denmark	3	1	5
3	Peru	3	0	3
4	Australia	3	-3	1

Japan

Last Six:

Last Game: Japan 0-1 Brazil
Monday, June 6 at 11.20am in International Friendlies

Next Game: Germany vs. Japan
Wednesday, November 23 at 1pm in World Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	5	7
2	Chile	3	4	6
3	Japan	3	-4	2
4	Ecuador	3	-5	1

Australia might boast the home advantage here, but Japan are the in-form team, and a victory would guarantee them automatic progression to the World Cup 2022. The fact they have been so strong defensively as of late, not conceding in four games is something that could prove to be a difference maker on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 44.43%. A win for Australia had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Australia win was 1-0 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Japan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Japan.

Result
Australia	Draw	Japan
30.36%	25.2%	44.43%

Both teams to score 55.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.82%

48.18%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.66%

70.33%

Australia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.47%

29.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.45%

65.55%

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.32%

21.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.17%

54.82%

Score Analysis

Australia 30.36%

Japan 44.43%

Draw 25.2%

Australia	Draw	Japan
1-0 @ 7.81% 2-1 @ 7.28% 2-0 @ 4.76% 3-1 @ 2.96% 3-2 @ 2.26% 3-0 @ 1.94% 4-1 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.44% Total : 30.36%	1-1 @ 11.93% 0-0 @ 6.4% 2-2 @ 5.57% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.2%	0-1 @ 9.79% 1-2 @ 9.13% 0-2 @ 7.48% 1-3 @ 4.65% 0-3 @ 3.81% 2-3 @ 2.84% 1-4 @ 1.78% 0-4 @ 1.46% 2-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.42% Total : 44.43%