Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 68.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 9.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 19.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (16.49%) and 0-3 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.03%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 1-0 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.