World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Jun 6, 2024 at 2pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
3 - 1
Sao Tome

Kawonga (6'), Nkhoma (14'), Mphasi (78')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Silva (67')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Malawi and Sao Tome & Principe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Zambia 2-1 Malawi
Tuesday, March 26 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Sao Tome & Principe

Last Game: South Sudan 0-0 Sao Tome
Tuesday, March 26 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Malawi 1-0 Sao Tome & Principe

Goals have been hard to come by for both teams of late, and we expect a low-scoring affair in this one. Having said that, we can also see Malawi just about doing enough to come away with maximum points in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 77.57%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 6.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.53%) and 3-0 (11.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.17%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
77.57% ( 0.51)	15.55% ( -0.29)	6.88% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 37.03% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.89% (

0.43)

46.11% (

-0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.59% (

0.41)

68.41% (

-0.41)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.02% (

0.24)

9.97% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.04% (

0.55)

32.96% (

-0.55)

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.13% (

-0.33)

58.87% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

9.93% (

-0.18)

90.06% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Malawi 77.56%

Sao Tome & Principe 6.88%

Draw 15.55%

Malawi	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
2-0 @ 15.6% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 13.53% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 11.98% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.51% Total : 77.56%	1-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.32% Total : 15.55%	0-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.86% Total : 6.88%