Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 5pm UK

Teslim Balogun Stadium

Nigeria
6 - 0
Sao Tome

Osimhen (13', 69' pen., 79'), Lookman (27'), Awoniyi (51'), Chukwueze (84')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Soares Vaz Ramos (11')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Nigeria and Sao Tome & Principe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nigeria

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Sao Tome & Principe

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Nigeria 5-0 Sao Tome & Principe

Nigeria hammered Sao Tome & Principe 10-0 in the reverse fixture back in June 2022 and the Selecao are in for another gruesome 90 minutes against a star-studded Super Eagles side. Sao Tome's form is currently nothing to write home about and we see the three-time African champions coming away with another huge victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 90.19%. A draw had a probability of 7.5% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 2.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 3-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.08%) and 4-0 (11.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.48%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (1.09%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Nigeria	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
90.19% ( -0.1)	7.51% ( 0.16)	2.3% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 31.3% (

-1.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.55% (

-1.48)

30.45% (

1.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.27% (

-1.79)

51.74% (

1.8)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.91% (

-0.24)

4.1% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

82.81% (

-0.79)

17.19% (

0.8)

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

32.64% (

-1.51)

67.36% (

1.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

6.02% (

-0.61)

93.98% (

0.62)

Score Analysis

Nigeria 90.18%

Sao Tome & Principe 2.3%

Draw 7.51%

Nigeria	Draw	Sao Tome & Principe
3-0 @ 15% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 14.08% ( 0.64) 4-0 @ 11.98% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.56) 5-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.23) 6-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.21) 7-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.1) 6-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.74% Total : 90.18%	1-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.17% Total : 7.51%	0-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.21% Total : 2.3%