Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Final clash between New Caledonia and New Zealand.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: New Caledonia 3-0 Tahiti
Friday, March 21 at 2.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Friday, March 21 at 2.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Last Game: New Zealand 7-0 Fiji
Friday, March 21 at 6.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
Friday, March 21 at 6.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 2-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | New Zealand |
| 26.61% | 22.28% | 51.11% |
| Both teams to score 62.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
