Wycombe Wanderers head into their League One matchup this weekend with first place on their minds as they welcome Oxford United to Adams Park in Buckinghamshire.
The Blues are unbeaten in their previous three matches and just a point behind Rotherham United and Sunderland for the top spot, while The U's have yet to win a game this year, dropping a 2-0 decision to Lincoln City last weekend.
Match preview
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After a short time in the Championship in 2020-21, Wycombe are hoping to make their time in League One a temporary stay as well, and they are in an excellent position to get back into the second tier of English football.
Every point is critical and can mean so much at the end of the season, and nobody knows that better than these players, who were relegated by a single point in their last campaign and are currently trailing the top two teams in the league by that same margin for a guaranteed promotion next season.
A top-two finish is the goal for Gareth Ainsworth and his team this time out, and the former Chairboys midfielder has been pleased with how his side have performed so far in the New Year.
Earlier this week, they collected a second successive clean sheet away from home, blanking Bolton Wanderers 2-0 in an impressive outing with this group playing some great football along the edge of their opponents' box.
That was not the only thing that Ainsworth liked about his team's performance, pointing out how well his players pressed Bolton, limiting them to long balls, something that this group have been able to do well at, particularly away from home.
This team are a quick-thinking squad who can adjust and react well to the tactics of opposing sides, and they have had to do that at home lately, coming back to earn a single point in each of their last two games played at Adams Park, scoring both of their equalising goals in injury time.
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Another side with plans to be in the Championship next season would be The Yellows of Oxford, who are currently in a position to obtain a qualifying spot for the League One playoffs.
Karl Robinson has made no secret that he wants this team to be promoted and take that next step, but so far, in 2022, they have taken a small step backwards with only one point out of a possible six.
Last Saturday, Robinson admitted that his players' pressing, distances and attitude were not what they usually are as they trailed by two goals before the hour mark and never really found their footing.
That has been an area that they have struggled with in the New Year, conceding the opening goal in their last two matches.
When they find themselves behind, they have a hard time reacting and clawing their way back into a contest, winning only one league fixture so far in this campaign when allowing the opening goal.
Before their defeat at Lincoln, this team had put together an impressive run of results away from home, going unbeaten in six consecutive league affairs.
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Team News
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Brandon Hanlan scored the winner for Wycombe on Tuesday, his fourth of the season, moving him into a tie for third on the team alongside Anis Mehmeti and Ryan Tafazolli, while Jack Grimmer notched his first of the campaign.
Goalkeeper David Stockdale has maintained two shutouts in his last three matches, and he kept a clean sheet in the first meeting with Oxford this season, stopping four shots in a game that finished 0-0.
There was only one change made to their starting 11 against Bolton from the side, who began the game against Sunderland with Ryan Tafazolli replacing Chris Forino-Joseph on defence.
Oxford chose not to appeal the red card issued to midfielder Herbie Kane on Saturday, which means that he will be suspended for this fixture.
Matty Taylor leads the team in goals with 10, which puts him in a tie with Will Keane of Wigan Athletic for sixth in the league, while Mark Sykes has two goals in his last three games.
The Yellows have scored 40 goals this season, but many of them would not have been possible if not for the creativity and vision of midfielder Gavin Whyte, as the man on loan from Cardiff City has chipped in with four assists in his previous four fixtures.
Wycombe Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Stockdale; Jacobson, Forino-Joseph, Stewart; Obita, Scowen, Thompson, Grimmer; McCleary; Hanlan, Vokes
Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Eastwood; Seddon, Moore, McNally, Long; Forde, McGuane, Sykes; Bodin, Taylor, Whyte
We say: Wycombe Wanderers 2-1 Oxford United
Wycombe have been the sharper of the two sides thus far in 2022, and while Oxford are still a talented team who should be contending for a promotion, The Chairboys have been a little quicker starting matches and tend to react a little better as well.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 39%. A win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 35.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Wycombe Wanderers win was 1-0 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wycombe Wanderers would win this match.
