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Arsenal logo
Premier League | Gameweek 19
Jan 18, 2021 at 8pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Newcastle logo

Arsenal
3 - 0
Newcastle

Aubameyang (50', 77'), Saka (60')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Arsenal vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal will be looking to return to winning ways in the Premier League when they continue their 2020-21 campaign at home to Newcastle United on Monday night.

The Gunners were held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace on Thursday, while Newcastle will enter the match off the back of a 1-0 defeat away to Sheffield United on Tuesday.


Match preview

Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette in action against Crystal Palace in the Premier League on January 14, 2021© Reuters

Arsenal had won three Premier League games in a row against Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion ahead of Thursday's clash with Palace, but Mikel Arteta's side could not find a way through against the Eagles as the points were shared in a goalless draw.

The result has left the Gunners in 11th position in the table, some eight points off the top four, and it is very difficult to imagine the capital giants challenging high up the division in the final stages of the season.

There have been signs of progress in recent weeks, though, with the club winning four of their last five matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 victory over Newcastle in the FA Cup last weekend.

Arsenal have actually won 14 of their last 15 Premier League games against the Magpies, who have lost their last eight away league games to the Gunners, which points to a home victory on Monday night.

Arteta's side have dropped league points to Leicester City, Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Palace at the Emirates Stadium this term, though, and the clash with Steve Bruce's team is a potential banana skin for FA Cup holders.

Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce pictured on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Newcastle, meanwhile, will enter the contest off the back of a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United, with the Blades securing their first league win of the season courtesy of a penalty from Billy Sharp.

The Magpies had Ryan Fraser sent off at Bramall Lane, but the manner of the performance was disappointing, and there is certainly pressure from the club's supporters on head coach Bruce.

Newcastle have won five, drawn four and lost eight of their 17 league matches this season to sit down in 15th position in the table, seven points clear of the relegation zone.

The four-time English champions picked up a welcome point at home to the champions Liverpool at the end of December but have not actually triumphed in the top flight since December 12, and they are now heading into a tough double-header away to Arsenal and away to Aston Villa.

Arsenal Premier League form: DLWWWD
Arsenal form (all competitions): LWWWWD

Newcastle United Premier League form: LDLDLL
Newcastle United form (all competitions): LLDLLL


Team News

Arsenal defender Kieran Tierney pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Arsenal will again be without the services of central defender Pablo Mari on Monday night, while young attacker Gabriel Martinelli remains a doubt with an ankle problem.

The club have allegedly received a huge boost when it comes to Kieran Tierney, though, with a scan believed to have shown that the Scotland international has not suffered any serious damage to his calf, meaning that he could be back in the starting XI for this fixture.

Arteta is expected to keep faith with the majority of the side that started against Palace, but Gabriel and Thomas Partey are pushing for spots in the team, while Ainsley Maitland-Niles will be the player to drop out if Tierney proves his fitness ahead of the contest.

As for Newcastle, Fraser will miss the trip to the Emirates Stadium through suspension, while Allan Saint-Maximin has returned to training but is still unavailable as he deals with the effects of coronavirus.

Paul Dummett is available, but Jamal Lewis, Federico Fernandez, Jonjo Shelvey and Jamaal Lascelles will all have to be assessed for the Magpies, who have won just two away games in the league this season.

Bruce is expected to make changes from the Sheffield United clash, with Miguel Almiron and Joelinton in line for recalls, but Callum Wilson, who has eight league goals this season, will again lead the line.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Holding, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Partey; Saka, Smith Rowe, Aubameyang; Lacazette

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Darlow; Yedlin, Lascelles, Schar, Clark, Dummett; Almiron, Hendrick, S Longstaff, Joelinton; Wilson


SM words green background

We say: Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United

Arsenal were disappointing against Palace, and Monday's fixture could be another tricky affair for the Gunners. Newcastle are capable of making it very difficult for Arteta's side, but we just think that the home team will get there in the end and have therefore backed a 1-0 success for the capital outfit.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.35%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 18.56%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Arsenal vs Newcastle

Arsenal
78.6%
Draw
13.2%
Newcastle United
8.2%
318
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Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce pictured on January 9, 2021
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6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
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10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
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13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
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15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
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19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256


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