Athletico Paranaense are hoping to maintain their slim one-goal advantage in the semi-finals of the Copa Sudamericana when they host Penarol in the second leg of that tie on Thursday from Arena da Baixada.
The 2018 winners of this event picked up a big 2-1 win on the road in the opening fixture between these sides last week as they aim to extend their unbeaten run at home to six consecutive games in all competitions.
Match preview
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Bruno Lazaroni could not have asked for a better start to their opening semi-final encounter as his side took advantage of some sloppy passing by the Uruguayans in the opening stages, going ahead after only two minutes.
It was the perfect way for his side to get into the game and quiet the raucous home crowd in Montevideo, but it was still a challenging game for Furacao to endure, with the home side coming at them in waves throughout much of the game, as Paranaense withstood a lot of pressure.
A moment of brilliance in the 75th minute off a free kick that was not properly cleared to safety gave the Brazilians the victory and a valuable advantage with two away goals heading home.
Athletico should be well aware that this tie is far from over though, especially given the fact that they have conceded three goals in their last two home games in this tournament, which should serve as a warning for them not to give their opponents any openings this Thursday.
They have been a pretty solid defensive unit at home in the Copa Sudamericana this year, failing to allow a goal in any of their group fixtures at Arena da Baixada, although over the weekend, this team conceded seven shots on goal and two goals to Gremio in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, though they still came out on top 4-2.
In nine previous meetings against teams from the Primera Division in Uruguay, El Paranaense have lost only one match, 3-2 to Penarol at the 2020 Copa Libertadores in a game that cost them first place in the group.
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After being stunned with an early strike in the first leg of this matchup, Mauricio Larriera saw his team respond well, going on the offensive, although their final touch usually let them down.
As this tournament has progressed, Decano have been a lot sharper on the road than at home, which has to be an encouraging sign for them right now, knowing that they need a victory at the very least to have any hope of advancing to their first-ever final.
In the opening phase of this competition, they scored nine times at home and only three on the road, but they have just two goals at home and five as the visitors in the knockout portion.
Even though they only had 40% possession on Thursday, they looked the livelier side throughout the match, with the bulk of the chances throughout the 90 minutes.
With multiple goals in their last two away games domestically, including five on Sunday against Boston River, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities for the Uruguayans to reverse their current deficit and knock the Brazilians out of this competition.
In their entire history at the Copa Sudamericana, Manyas have only won three of their nine encounters against sides from Brazil, with only one of those victories coming away from home, although that win happened in the group stage this year, 2-0 over Corinthians.
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Team News
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David Terans, who had two goals and two assists for Penarol in the group phase of this tournament, scored the opener against his former club last week and his seventh since signing with El Paranaense back in May.
Pedro Rocha has three goals in his last two matches in all competitions, scoring the winner in the opening game last Thursday, while also notching a brace over the weekend against Gremio.
Matheus Babi remains sidelined after undergoing cruciate ligament surgery, while there were several new additions to the starting 11 on Sunday from the team that began their match last week with Lucas Fasson replacing Pedro Henrique on defence, Khellven was inserted in midfield in favour of Abner, Leo Cittadini took the place of Erick, Nicolas started instead of Marcinho, Terans replaced Rocha and Renato Kayzer started as the lone striker with Guilherme Bissoli taking his place in the 78th minute.
Penarol striker Agustin Alvarez scored his 10th goal in this competition in the opening match of this round, while Ariel Nahuelpan had a brace in their domestic league win on Sunday.
Martin Correa is out with a muscle injury, and Facundo Torres had a goal in their victory this past weekend, his first since the opening game of their quarter-final match with Sporting Cristal.
Decano have started Giovanni Gonzalez, Carlos Rodriguez, Gary Kagelmacher and Juan Manuel Ramos as the back four in their previous two Copa Sudamericana games.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Khellven, Heleno, Ivaldo, Henrique; Abner, Richard, Cittadini, Marcinho; Terans; Rocha
Penarol possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Kagelmacher, Ramos; Trindade; Laquintana, Gaitan, Ceppelini, Torres; Alvarez
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-2 Penarol (Penarol advances on penalties)
In the opening game, El Paranaense were fortunate to only allow one goal, and now that they are leading on aggregate and away goals, expect to see them play a little more laid back, which could prove to be their demise against a side like Penarol, who are hungry to put Uruguay on the map in this competition.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 56.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 19.51%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
