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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Oct 29, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
6 - 2
Mainz

Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Pavard (88')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Barcelona 0-3 Bayern
Wednesday, October 26 at 8pm in Champions League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 5-0 FC Koln
Friday, October 21 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 3-0 Mainz 05

 We expect Bayern to have too much class for Mainz, despite the visitors' decent form across their last few matches. The Bavarians have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions since the international break, and they will be determined to return to the top of the Bundesliga and place significant pressure on Union Berlin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
80.13% (0.081999999999994 0.08) 12.9% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 6.97% (-0.031 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.55% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.37% (0.113 0.11)32.63% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.7% (0.13 0.13)54.3% (-0.126 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.69% (0.042000000000002 0.04)6.32% (-0.0371 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.24% (0.107 0.11)23.76% (-0.102 -0.1)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.75% (0.00099999999999767 0)49.25% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.87%84.13% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 80.12%
    Mainz 05 6.97%
    Draw 12.9%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.86% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 10.92% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.59% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.4% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.74% (0.0040000000000004 0)
4-0 @ 7.54% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.34% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
5-0 @ 4.17% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.95% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.0020000000000002 0)
6-0 @ 1.92% (0.014 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.89% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.36% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.05% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 80.12%
1-1 @ 6.09% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.11% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 12.9%
0-1 @ 2.2% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.16% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 6.97%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
85.1%
Draw
7.4%
Mainz 05
7.4%
121
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz 05
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
2-1
Mainz 05
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz 05
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
Jan 3, 2021 5pm
Bayern
5-2
Mainz 05
Kimmich (50'), Sane (55'), Sule (70'), Lewandowski (76' pen., 83')
Boateng (32'), Alaba (62')
Burkardt (32'), Hack (44')
Boetius (59')
Feb 1, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-3
Bayern
St Juste (45')
St Juste (57'), Boetius (87'), Latza (88')
Lewandowski (8'), Muller (14'), Alcantara (26')
Goretzka (64')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316
> Bundesliga Full Table


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