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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
48.75% ( 0.02) | 22.73% ( 0.01) | 28.51% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 62.59% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.07% ( -0.05) | 37.93% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.81% ( -0.06) | 60.18% ( 0.06) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.12% ( -0.01) | 15.87% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% ( -0.02) | 45.09% ( 0.02) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.4% ( -0.05) | 25.6% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.52% ( -0.06) | 60.48% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.75% 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 3.75% Total : 48.75% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.77% 1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 28.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 42 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
8 | Watford | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 38 |
9 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 32 |
14 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 25 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 24 |
22 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Portsmouth | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 21 |
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