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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
Result | ||
Watford | Draw | Derby County |
44.91% (![]() | 25.36% (![]() | 29.72% (![]() |
Both teams to score 54.32% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.84% (![]() | 49.15% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.77% (![]() | 71.22% (![]() |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.13% (![]() | 21.87% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.88% (![]() | 55.12% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.53% (![]() | 30.47% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.32% (![]() | 66.68% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Watford | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.12% (![]() 2-1 @ 9.15% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 7.7% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.64% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.9% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.75% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.76% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.48% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.05% ( ![]() Other @ 2.36% Total : 44.9% | 1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5.44% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.92% (![]() 1-2 @ 7.15% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.71% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.83% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.15% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.86% ( ![]() Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
2 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
3 | Watford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
6 | Burnley | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
8 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
9 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
10 | Derby CountyDerby | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
11 | Stoke CityStoke | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
12 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
14 | Bristol City | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
15 | Millwall | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
16 | Swansea CitySwansea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
18 | Portsmouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
19 | Hull City | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
21 | Preston North EndPreston | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
22 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
24 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 |
> Championship Full Table |