Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 4, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar
Union La Calera0 - 2Velez Sarsfield
Valencia (11'), Castellani (39'), Wiemberg (43'), Martin Arias (90+6')
Castellani (64'), Valencia (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bouzat (38'), Orellano (90+5')
Caseres (19'), Martin Lucero (45+2'), Bouzat (60'), Nicolas Mulet (90+4')
Caseres (19'), Martin Lucero (45+2'), Bouzat (60'), Nicolas Mulet (90+4')
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Union La Calera had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Union La Calera win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union La Calera | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 32.97% | 27.02% | 40.01% |
| Both teams to score 50.4% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
