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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.34%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
50.89% ( 1.97) | 22.22% ( -0.55) | 26.89% ( -1.42) |
Both teams to score 63.08% ( 0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.3% ( 1.57) | 36.69% ( -1.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.14% ( 1.69) | 58.86% ( -1.68) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.31% ( 1.25) | 14.69% ( -1.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.14% ( 2.35) | 42.86% ( -2.35) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.93% ( -0.15) | 26.06% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.89% ( -0.2) | 61.11% ( 0.21) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.3) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.24) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.26) 4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.2) 4-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.17) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.14) Other @ 4.28% Total : 50.89% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.3) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.28) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.43) 0-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.31) 1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 26.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 42 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 39 |
4 | Feyenoord | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 28 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
9 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
10 | Willem II | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 22 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 22 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 20 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 17 |
15 | Heracles | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 7 |
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