With their hopes of World Cup 2022 qualification hanging by the thinnest of threads, Hungary prepare to welcome minnows San Marino to the Puskas Arena on Friday night.
The hosts' destiny is out of their own hands ahead of the final two Qualifying games, while San Marino are simply trying to restore a sense of pride after another doomed campaign.
Match preview
© Reuters
While their players were giving a good account of themselves on the Wembley turf, a section of the Hungary crowd overshadowed an otherwise memorable occasion for their nation as they clashed with police in the stands, which has seen their fans banned from attending next week's final battle with Poland in Warsaw.
Amid the off-the-pitch drama, Hungary drew first blood against England thanks to Roland Sallai's penalty, but John Stones levelled the scores before the break as Marco Rossi's men travelled back home with a credible point in the bag.
However, this week's hosts sit six points off the top two in Group I with only two games remaining, so while they will be expected to get the job done this week, their hopes of a spot in Qatar will be dashed if Poland pick up at least a point against Andorra.
Hungary gave a very good account of themselves against the big boys in Euro 2020, but inconsistency has bedevilled them in Qualifying, with Rossi's men now winless in four after taking seven points from their opening three fixtures.
Victory over Andorra in September represents Hungary's only win from their last nine attempts in all tournaments - and even then they only just squeezed past the minnows 2-1 - but they certainly have fond memories of their recent battle with San Marino.
© Reuters
The visit of Andorra arguably represented San Marino's best opportunity to put at least one point on the board in Group I and bow out with their heads held high, but the day ended in a comprehensive 3-0 defeat for Franco Varrella's side on home soil.
Marc Pujol, Sergi Moreno and Ricard Fernandez propelled Andorra to victory in that basement battle as San Marino failed to register just an eighth game without defeat in their history, and the final whistle cannot blow quickly enough for this week's visitors.
Nicola Nanni's shock strike in a 7-1 defeat to Poland is all that the microstate have to cheer from Qualifying, as Varrella's side are surely condemned to a sixth-placed finish as one of only two UEFA nations without a point so far - the other being Gibraltar.
San Marino's tally of 32 goals conceded is actually not the worst defensive record in UEFA Qualifying - that accolade belongs to Gibraltar's 34 - but it is now 11 defeats on the bounce for the world's 210th-ranked nation ahead of this encounter.
Hungary made hard work of their triumph over San Marino back in March and had to rely on two penalties to help them to a 3-0 win, but their most recent battle with the microstate on home soil ended in an 8-0 win during a 2010 friendly.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Hungary defender Endre Botka is back from a ban this week and could slot straight back into the hosts' backline, with Akos Kecskes at risk of dropping out.
Andras Schafer and Dominik Szoboszlai could be spared after they both picked up bookings in the England draw, while the latter's RB Leipzig teammates Willi Orban and Peter Gulacsi are both out through injury.
With their fate out of their own hands, Rossi may elect to rotate against the minnows, with uncapped youngsters Tamas Kiss and Botond Balogh both eyeing their debuts for the senior team.
San Marino captain Davide Simoncini is due to serve a suspension on Friday but has not been called up to the squad in any case, while fellow experienced defenders Mirko Palazzi and Cristian Brolli have also been left at home.
Lucchese forward Nanni is one of only three players in the San Marino squad to have scored for his country, and the 21-year-old is set to take his place at the tip of the attack.
Serie C goalkeeper Elia Benedettini is in line to win his 30th cap for the national team this weekend, and he should be protected by the returning Dante Rossi as Simoncini misses out.
Hungary possible starting lineup:
Dibusz; Balogh, Szalai, Lang; Fiola, A. Nagy, Vecsei, Varga; Gazdag, Schon; Hahn
San Marino possible starting lineup:
Benedettini; Battistini, Fabbri, Rossi, Grandoni; Zafferani, E. Golinucci, A. Golinucci, Censoni, D. Tomassini; Nanni
We say: Hungary 4-0 San Marino
The result of this game may end up paling into insignificance for both sides depending on results elsewhere, but no surprises should be sprung in Budapest.
Hungary were not entirely convincing in their previous success over San Marino, but a much-changed XI should still have enough to put the minnows to the sword.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 61.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 15.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hungary would win this match.
