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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
Barrow
Bradford City
Bromley
Carlisle United
Cheltenham Town
Chesterfield
Colchester United
Crewe Alexandra
Doncaster Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Harrogate Town
MK Dons
Morecambe
Newport County
Notts County
Port Vale
Salford City
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Cheltenham Town
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Swindon Town

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Swindon

Miller (63'), Archer (78')
Shipley (43'), Miller (59')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Cox (30'), Wright (34'), McGregor (47')
Ofoborh (14'), Kennedy (15'), Cox (45+2'), Longelo-Mbule (85'), Wright (90+5'), Barden (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Cheltenham Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Swindon Town

Swindon have not exactly been full of goals this season, and they have only won once in the league in 2024-25, so it is difficult to back them with any real confidence. Cheltenham's form is not great, though, and we are struggling to find a winner here, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
35.33% (-0.185 -0.18) 26.03% (-0.166 -0.17) 38.63% (0.351 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.03% (0.532 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (0.688 0.69)50.39% (-0.69 -0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (0.606 0.61)72.33% (-0.605 -0.61)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.56% (0.217 0.22)27.43% (-0.218 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.08% (0.278 0.28)62.91% (-0.28 -0.28)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.45% (0.511 0.51)25.54% (-0.512 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (0.694 0.69)60.4% (-0.695 -0.7)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 35.33%
    Swindon Town 38.63%
    Draw 26.03%
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 9.06% (-0.198 -0.2)
2-1 @ 8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.86% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-1 @ 3.45% (0.018 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.53% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 35.33%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.01% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 9.56% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.085 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.31% (0.047 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.01% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 38.63%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Swindon

Cheltenham Town
47.5%
Draw
20.0%
Swindon Town
32.5%
40
Head to Head
Apr 10, 2020 3pm
Nov 19, 2019 7.45pm
First Round
Swindon
0-1
Cheltenham

Jaiyesimi (71')
Addai (50')
Raglan (38'), Doyle-Hayes (71'), Lloyd (84')
Nov 9, 2019 3pm
First Round
Cheltenham
1-1
Swindon
Addai (93')
Thomas (57'), Boyle (76'), Long (95')
Yates (91')
Hunt (80')
Aug 24, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 5
Cheltenham
2-2
Swindon
Hussey (19'), Varney (41')
Broom (25')
Doyle (6', 33')
Isgrove (19'), Lyden (78')
Doughty (71')
Apr 27, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 45
Cheltenham
3-2
Swindon
Woolfenden (26' og.), Waters (30'), Dawson (37')
Tozer (41'), Boyle (92'), Raglan (94')
Robinson (84'), Richards (90')
Woolfenden (91')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall36208865412468
2Bradford CityBradford36199848301866
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster361881053431062
4AFC Wimbledon35179946232360
5Notts County351610953371658
6Port Vale34151364335858
7Crewe AlexandraCrewe36141484437756
8Grimsby Town35175135151056
9Colchester UnitedColchester35121674032852
10Bromley361312114643351
11Salford City351311114337650
12Fleetwood TownFleetwood361213114943649
13Swindon TownSwindon361113125252046
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham351210134650-446
15Chesterfield34129135243945
16BarrowBarrow35127163841-343
17Newport CountyNewport35127164556-1143
18MK Dons35126174650-442
19Gillingham35118163038-841
20Harrogate TownHarrogate36117182945-1640
21Accrington StanleyAccrington3599173954-1536
22Tranmere RoversTranmere36712172755-2833
23Morecambe3685233154-2329
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle3569202551-2627


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