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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
35.33% ( -0.18) | 26.03% ( -0.17) | 38.63% ( 0.35) |
Both teams to score 54.03% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.6% ( 0.69) | 50.39% ( -0.69) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.67% ( 0.61) | 72.33% ( -0.61) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.56% ( 0.22) | 27.43% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.08% ( 0.28) | 62.91% ( -0.28) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.45% ( 0.51) | 25.54% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.59% ( 0.69) | 60.4% ( -0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
1-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.45% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.96% Total : 35.33% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.03% | 0-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.44% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.84% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.49% Total : 38.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 21 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 20 |
3 | Notts County | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 19 |
4 | Walsall | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Gillingham | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 19 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
9 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 17 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
11 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
12 | Chesterfield | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
13 | Newport CountyNewport | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
14 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 14 |
15 | MK Dons | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
16 | Salford City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 12 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 11 |
20 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
23 | Morecambe | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 7 |
> League Two Full Table |