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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
Barrow
Bradford City
Bromley
Carlisle United
Cheltenham Town
Chesterfield
Colchester United
Crewe Alexandra
Doncaster Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Harrogate Town
MK Dons
Morecambe
Newport County
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Salford City
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Cheltenham Town
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Swindon Town

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Swindon

Miller (63'), Archer (78')
Shipley (43'), Miller (59')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Cox (30'), Wright (34'), McGregor (47')
Ofoborh (14'), Kennedy (15'), Cox (45+2'), Longelo-Mbule (85'), Wright (90+5'), Barden (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Cheltenham Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Swindon Town

Swindon have not exactly been full of goals this season, and they have only won once in the league in 2024-25, so it is difficult to back them with any real confidence. Cheltenham's form is not great, though, and we are struggling to find a winner here, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
35.33% (-0.185 -0.18) 26.03% (-0.166 -0.17) 38.63% (0.351 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.03% (0.532 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (0.688 0.69)50.39% (-0.69 -0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (0.606 0.61)72.33% (-0.605 -0.61)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.56% (0.217 0.22)27.43% (-0.218 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.08% (0.278 0.28)62.91% (-0.28 -0.28)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.45% (0.511 0.51)25.54% (-0.512 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (0.694 0.69)60.4% (-0.695 -0.7)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 35.33%
    Swindon Town 38.63%
    Draw 26.03%
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 9.06% (-0.198 -0.2)
2-1 @ 8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.86% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-1 @ 3.45% (0.018 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.53% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 35.33%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.01% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 9.56% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.085 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.31% (0.047 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.01% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 38.63%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Swindon

Cheltenham Town
47.5%
Draw
20.0%
Swindon Town
32.5%
40
Head to Head
Apr 10, 2020 3pm
Nov 19, 2019 7.45pm
First Round
Swindon
0-1
Cheltenham

Jaiyesimi (71')
Addai (50')
Raglan (38'), Doyle-Hayes (71'), Lloyd (84')
Nov 9, 2019 3pm
First Round
Cheltenham
1-1
Swindon
Addai (93')
Thomas (57'), Boyle (76'), Long (95')
Yates (91')
Hunt (80')
Aug 24, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 5
Cheltenham
2-2
Swindon
Hussey (19'), Varney (41')
Broom (25')
Doyle (6', 33')
Isgrove (19'), Lyden (78')
Doughty (71')
Apr 27, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 45
Cheltenham
3-2
Swindon
Woolfenden (26' og.), Waters (30'), Dawson (37')
Tozer (41'), Boyle (92'), Raglan (94')
Robinson (84'), Richards (90')
Woolfenden (91')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall20134337191843
2Port Vale2110742619737
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster2110653124736
4Crewe AlexandraCrewe209832416835
5Chesterfield2197536231334
6AFC Wimbledon20103731171433
7Notts County208752821731
8Grimsby Town21101102833-531
9MK Dons199373326730
10Gillingham209382218430
11Salford City208662219330
12Bradford CityBradford207762422228
13Bromley206952523227
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham217682930-127
15BarrowBarrow207582018226
16Newport CountyNewport207582731-426
17Colchester UnitedColchester2041152322123
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood195862425-123
19Tranmere RoversTranmere205691529-1421
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2163121732-1521
21Swindon TownSwindon2147102635-919
22Accrington StanleyAccrington204792636-1019
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2036111532-1715
24Morecambe2135131938-1914


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