Mainz 05 entertain Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Tuesday, with the hosts boosted by moving off the foot of the table with an excellent 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund on Saturday.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, failed to close the gap to Dortmund in fourth after drawing 2-2 at home to RB Leipzig.
Match preview
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Despite losing 2-0 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt in his first game in charge, there were undoubtedly positive signs for Bo Svensson to take from the second half of that match.
Paying great respect to Dortmund's array of superb attackers, Svensson switched to a back five ahead of the trip to BVB, with Mainz looking more secure defensively as a result.
Levin Oztunali, starting from a right wing-back position, marked his first start since returning from injury by firing the visitors into a surprise lead prior to the hour mark, with Svensson's side holding on for a tremendous point which moved them back above Schalke after Thomas Meunier's 73rd-mintue equaliser.
His side will need to be just as defensively compact against the in-form Wolves on Tuesday, but may find chances easier to come by in transition.
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Indeed, while Wolfsburg continue to please the eye, their defence has suffered with illness and injury in recent matches, with Oliver Glasner's side conceding two goals in each of their last three Bundesliga games.
Drawing against Leipzig can never be considered a disappointing result, though, even if the Wolves did earn themselves a one-goal cushion at the half-time interval after Renato Steffen and Wout Weghorst's strikes overturned Nordi Mukiele's fourth-minute opener.
However, Willi Orban levelled the proceedings nine minutes after the break, with Wolfsburg successfully hanging on for a point after Leipzig controlled the game thereafter.
Having faced fellow top 10 sides in their last six league games, Glasner will be pleased to face a side towards the bottom of the table, but equally will be guarding against any form of complacency in an attempt to ensure his side get back to winning ways.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LDLLLD
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): DLLLLD
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WLWLDD
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): LWWLDD
Team News
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Mainz will not have Edmilson Fernandes available for the visit Wolfsburg due to COVID-19, while Pierre Kunde is ruled out through injury.
Otherwise, Svensson appears to have a clean bill of health to choose from, with top goalscorer Jean-Phillipe Mateta itching for a start having been an unused substitute in the draw at Dortmund.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, will welcome Maximilian Arnold back to the squad after the midfielder served a one-game suspension in the draw against Leipzig.
Jeffrey Bruma, Marin Pongracic and Jerome Roussillon are ruled out from the trip to Mainz with injury.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Oztunali, Niakhate, Bell, Hack, Mwene; Latza, Barreiro, Boetius; Quaison, Mateta
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Brekalo, Gerhardt, Steffen; Weghorst
We say: Mainz 05 1-2 Wolfsburg
We can envisage Wolfsburg having too much firepower for Mainz, but it should be a closely-fought affair.
Wolfsburg can move level on points with Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League qualification places, though, so there is plenty of motivation for both sides.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.61%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
