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Major League Soccer
Atlanta United
Major League Soccer
Oct 9, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New York City

Atlanta
1 - 2
NY City

Gutman (67')
Araujo (45+6'), Almada (64'), Sanchez (81')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pereira (9'), Heber (60')
Callens (10'), Rodriguez (72'), Johnson (83'), Tinnerholm (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions
Last Game: New England 2-1 Atlanta
Saturday, October 1 at 6.30pm in Major League Soccer

New York City FC

All competitions
Last Game: NY City 2-1 Orlando City
Sunday, October 2 at 6pm in Major League Soccer

We said: Atlanta United 1-2 New York City FC

 Although Atlanta are a strong proposition at home, they have little to play for in their final game, whereas New York City have the motivation of finishing above their local rivals. Recent form and the fact that the away side will still be on a high following recent cup glory just gives them the edge here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for New York City FC in this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew York City FC
48.88% (-0.143 -0.14) 23.28% (0.0030000000000001 0) 27.83% (0.14 0.14)
Both teams to score 60.06% (0.11 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.97% (0.093000000000004 0.09)41.02% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.58% (0.094000000000001 0.09)63.41% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.01% (-0.01700000000001 -0.02)16.98% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.9% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)47.09% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.35% (0.14700000000001 0.15)27.65% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.8% (0.187 0.19)63.19% (-0.186 -0.19)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 48.88%
    New York City FC 27.83%
    Draw 23.28%
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew York City FC
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.33% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.38% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.61% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.36% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.6% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.002 0)
Other @ 4.1%
Total : 48.88%
1-1 @ 10.7% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.1% (0.018 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.7% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.54% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.28%
1-2 @ 6.88% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.04%
0-2 @ 3.88% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.95% (0.022 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.61% (0.018 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.66% (0.014 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 27.83%

How you voted: Atlanta vs NY City

Atlanta United
37.5%
Draw
0.0%
New York City FC
62.5%
8
Head to Head
Jul 3, 2022 10pm
NY City
2-2
Atlanta
Castellanos (37', 58')
Chanot (18'), Rodriguez (24'), Magno (53'), Morales (71')
Martinez (56'), Dwyer (86')
McFadden (16'), Araujo (47')
Nov 21, 2021 8pm
NY City
2-0
Atlanta
Castellanos (49'), Callens (53')

Franco (43'), Moreno (81')
Franco (90+3')
Oct 21, 2021 12.30am
Atlanta
1-1
NY City
Moreno (17')
Franco (60'), Robinson (85')
Thorarinsson (90')
Moralez (24'), Sands (90+4')
Jun 24, 2021 12.30am
NY City
1-0
Atlanta
Tajouri (69')

Sosa (12'), Barco (45'), Lopez (55')
Aug 1, 2020 8pm
Atlanta
P-P
NY City
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