Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Chesterfield in this match.
Result | ||
Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
31.44% ( 0.31) | 23.75% ( 0.07) | 44.8% ( -0.38) |
Both teams to score 60.76% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.87% ( -0.21) | 41.13% ( 0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.47% ( -0.21) | 63.52% ( 0.21) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.66% ( 0.09) | 25.33% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.88% ( 0.12) | 60.11% ( -0.12) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.37% ( -0.24) | 18.63% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.06% ( -0.4) | 49.93% ( 0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.44% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 44.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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