The New England Revolution renew their rivalry with the New York Red Bulls on Saturday at Gillette Stadium, as they play their second match in their three-game homestand.
New England got a late winner last weekend to beat the defending champions Columbus Crew, while the Red Bulls were shut out for the first time this season in a 1-0 defeat to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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In their opening six matches of the new season, manager Bruce Arena and his side have not always looked like cup contenders, but they have nonetheless been able to come away with points on all but one occasion up until now.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner earned his first clean sheet of the new campaign as the team in front of him did a terrific job limiting the reigning champions to just a single shot on goal.
The Revs have found themselves in plenty of tight matches early on in 2021 but have been able to take their game to another level when needed.
New England may not be lighting up the scoreboard like other teams in the league right now, but they have been getting the job done with some solid efforts from the entire squad.
Five different players have scored to this point of the season for the Revs, and four already have at least one assist, which is something they will want to continue as they look to claim their first MLS Cup in club history.
The Red Bulls are currently sitting in ninth place in the Eastern Conference table, in what has been an up and down start for manager Gerhard Struber and his team.
The up-tempo, high-pressing style that has made RB Leipzig and RB Salzburg successful in Europe has produced a mixed bag of results for this New York squad, with two wins and three losses.
That style was highly effective against the likes of Toronto FC and the Chicago Fire, but when facing stiffer competition, like the Philadelphia Union, it seemed clear that they still had some work to do.
Including their first-round playoff defeat to the Columbus Crew in 2020, the Red Bulls are winless in their last six matches away from home, conceding 15 goals in that stretch.
Struber says that he saw some good things from newcomer Patryk Klimala in their match versus Philadelphia, as he was the most dangerous Red Bulls player, after entering in place of Daniel Royer in the second half.
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Team News
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Defensive midfielder Luis Caicedo remains out with a leg injury, so Matt Polster will likely start again after doing a great job shutting down a dynamic Columbus midfield.
Brandon Bye notched his first assist of the season last weekend, and Carles Gil continues to be instrumental in midfield, leading the league with 27 key passes in this campaign.
The Red Bulls could be missing centre-forward Tom Barlow and winger Florian Valot with hamstring and knee injuries, respectively.
Midfielder Youba Diarra has a muscle injury, while left-back Jason Pendant is still recovering from a shoulder problem.
Winger Daniel Royer needs just two more goals to pull even with Thierry Henry for third on the team's all-time goalscoring list.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Farrell, Kessler, Jones; Maciel, Polster; Buchanan, Gil, Traustason; Bou
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Edwards, Long, Nealis, Duncan; Davis; Clark, Casseres; Amaya; Klimala, Royer
We say: New England Revolution 1-0 New York Red Bulls
Bruce Arena has seen his side produce some late drama in their past two games, which should be a concern waiting so long to score, but the silver lining is some of their primary offensive weapons, like Teal Bunbury and Adam Buksa, have come to life.
The Red Bulls have not won away from home this season and will have a hard time getting the better of the versatile New England midfield.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 58.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.
