Nottingham Forest square off against Luton Town on Good Friday knowing that victory will keep the club in the hunt for second position in the Championship standings.
However, despite holding a more favourable position than their hosts, Forest will fall behind fifth-placed Luton if they succumb to defeat at Kenilworth Road.
Match preview
© Reuters
Whatever Forest's fate come the end of the season, everyone associated with the club knows that they have fallen on their feet with the appointment of Steve Cooper, but that ultimately heaps the pressure on the head coach and his squad to take full advantage of their current form and position.
Last weekend's 2-0 victory over Birmingham City made it five successive wins in the Championship, a result which closed the gap to second-placed Bournemouth to six points.
Although Forest are still only four points above seventh, there is a feeling that they are the only genuine contenders to the Cherries with 15 goals coming during those triumphs.
Brennan Johnson has justifiably dominated the headlines of late, but the acquisition of Aston Villa loanee Keinan Davis in January has proven to be a masterstroke, the forward's presence equally as important as his five goals and two assists.
With trips to Fulham and Bournemouth still to come, Forest have plenty of work ahead of them, and they will not need reminding that their sole focus should be on trying to overcome one of the surprise packages of the campaign.
© Reuters
Luton's level has dropped of late with no successes coming in three outings, but Nathan Jones will still be more than satisfied with fifth position at this stage of the season.
The 2-0 reverse at Huddersfield Town on Monday night realistically ended any lingering hope of challenging for the top two, the Terriers producing a strong second half to collect maximum points.
Going up against the form team in the division in their next game is certainly less than ideal, although Jones will feel that playing at home could help the Hatters.
Nevertheless, while thirteen points have recently come from a possible 18 on familiar territory, Forest have collected 11 points on the road over the same amount of fixtures.
In the reverse encounter at the City Ground back in November, the two teams played out a goalless draw.
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
With Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu and Henri Lansbury both sustaining injuries during the defeat at Huddersfield, Smith could hand recalls to Luke Berry and Robert Snodgrass.
James Bree may also return to right wing-back, resulting in a recall for Daniel Potts in defence and Fred Onyedinma dropping to the substitutes' bench.
Barring any unforeseen injury issues, Cooper is unlikely to make any alterations to his in-form Forest team.
While numerous attacking players are pushing for opportunities, Philip Zinckernagel, Johnson and Davis are performing too consistently for their positions to come under threat.
As it stands, Max Lowe and Steve Cook will be the only injury absentees.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Bradley, Naismith, Potts; Bree, Berry, Campbell, Snodgrass, Bell; Cornick, Adebayo
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; McKenna, Figueiredo, Worrall; Spence, Yates, Garner, Colback; Zinckernagel; Johnson, Davis
We say: Luton Town 1-3 Nottingham Forest
While both clubs will feel under pressure to record a win on Friday, the stakes are arguably higher for the home side as they look to fend off the chasing pack. Nevertheless, we simply cannot back against Forest versus any other club right now, leading us to predict another victory and more goals for Cooper's side.
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match.
