Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.15%) and 2-3 (4.98%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Stoke City Under-21s in this match.