Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 55.26%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 23.03% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.