Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 55.63%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.81%) and 3-1 (6.76%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.