Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
43.44% ( -0.01) | 24.61% ( -0) | 31.95% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 57.98% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.13% ( 0.02) | 44.87% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.77% ( 0.02) | 67.23% ( -0.02) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.26% ( 0) | 20.74% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.63% ( 0.01) | 53.37% ( -0.01) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.16% ( 0.02) | 26.84% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.85% ( 0.02) | 62.14% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.42% 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 43.44% | 1-1 @ 11.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.6% | 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.32% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.82% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |