Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arouca in this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
25.85% ( 0.65) | 24.77% ( 0.24) | 49.38% ( -0.89) |
Both teams to score 53.37% ( -0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.94% ( -0.47) | 49.06% ( 0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.86% ( -0.43) | 71.14% ( 0.43) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.63% ( 0.29) | 33.37% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.01% ( 0.31) | 69.99% ( -0.31) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.1% ( -0.55) | 19.89% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.98% ( -0.89) | 52.02% ( 0.89) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 4% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.38% Total : 25.85% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.85% Total : 49.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 32 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 22 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Nacional | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |