The newly-crowned Copa Sudamericana champions could move as high as 11th in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings with a win and some help as Athletico Paranaense battle Sao Paulo at Cierco Pompeu de Toledo Stadium on Wednesday.
Tricolor Paulista beat their bitter rivals Palmeiras 2-0 at Allianz Parque last week, while El Paranaense captured their second Sudamericana title, thanks to a 1-0 win over Bragantino on Sunday.
Match preview
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Sao Paulo were as determined as ever to get back to winning ways last Wednesday as Rogerio Ceni picked up only his third victory since taking charge in what was an inspired performance by his group against Palestra.
It was a complete reversal from what we saw from them in their previous match versus Flamengo, when they were outplayed in virtually every statistical category and looked sloppy from the get-go, conceding three times in the first half, two with less than five minutes played in a 4-0 defeat.
If only they could treat every game like they do when facing Palmeiras, perhaps they would be a little higher up in the standings than their current place of 14th, as their city rivals seem to bring out the very best in them.
Since the league moved to a 38-game domestic schedule in 2006, Sao Paulo have never missed qualifying for a spot in either the Copa Libertadores or the Copa Sudamericana, but at the moment, they are a point behind in the race for the latter.
While a win is nice, maintaining that momentum has not been easy for this team, who have not won consecutive league matches since the middle of August, although they did not beat just anybody the last time out, but their most hated opponents, so you have to think that their emotions could be high going into this game.
This team have either maintained a shutout or been shut out in three straight Serie A home fixtures, and they are unbeaten in their previous three matches versus El Paranaense.
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A few days after one of the biggest triumphs in club history, Furacao return to domestic league action, looking to put an end to a two-game slide.
Despite only having 36% of the possession versus Braga on Sunday, they were full marks for the victory in the final of the Copa Sudamericana, holding their opponents to only two shots on target.
He only arrived in Curitiba in October, but already Alberto Valentim seems to have struck a chord with this group as they handled the two-time defending league champions Flamengo over two legs in their semi-final tie of the Copa do Brasil, advancing to the final, which they will contest next month against league leaders Atletico Mineiro.
They are a patient team who like to defend deep and wait for the right opportunity to strike on the counter, but the problem is they have not got themselves into good positions to make those attacks count in recent games, firing only one shot on target in each of their previous two domestic fixtures versus Internacional and Atletico Mineiro, both games which resulted in defeats.
Their wide play has been vital to their success, as their traditional 3-4-3 set-up is most effective when their fullbacks and outside midfielders begin their counterattacks.
After beginning the 2021 domestic campaign with three straight clean sheets, they have conceded at least one goal in all but three of their league fixtures, with their last shutout coming on November 7, 2-0 over Bragantino.
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Team News
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Luciano set up the winning goal this weekend for Sao Paulo, scored by Gabriel Sara, and he got the insurance marker in the second half, his second of the domestic season.
Walce will not be eligible to play in this encounter as the centre-back has missed the entire year with a cruciate ligament rupture.
Tiago Volpi moved into a tie with Joao Paulo of Santos as he collected his 12th clean sheet of the campaign thanks to some outstanding defensive work from Reinaldo, Miranda, Robert Arboleda and Igor Vinicius, who made life easy for the 30-year-old goalkeeper, as he only had four saves to make last Wednesday.
Nikao scored the only goal on Sunday in the Copa Sudamericana triumph for El Paranaense, his first since notching a brace in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil match against Flamengo.
Renato Kayzer had the only goal in their 2-1 defeat at home to Sao Paulo back in August off a good play from David Terans, who is tied with Kayzer in goals this season with six and leads the team in assists with seven, one less than Artur and Vitinho for second in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Matheus Babi remains sidelined following his cruciate ligament surgery, while Erick, Leo Cittadini and Abner were cautioned in their match on Sunday, but fortunately for Erick, cards in the Sudamericana do not count towards a potential suspension in Serie A.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Leo, Miranda, Arboleda, Vinicius; Neves, Gomes, Nestor, Sara; Rigoni, Luciano
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Ivaldo, Heleno, Nicolas; Marcinho, Canesin, Cittadini, Abner; Nikao, Kayzer, Terans
We say: Sao Paulo 2-0 Athletico Paranaense
Each side are coming off emotional highs in their previous encounter, but Sao Paulo should have the edge because they have had a whole week to let their victory sink in and refocus on this game and the incentive of qualifying for one of the top two South American competitions next year is still a possibility.
After capturing their second Copa Sudamericana title over the past three seasons and with an opportunity to win the Copa do Brasil before the end of the year, there is not as much for El Paranaense to play for in the league right now with first place well beyond their reach, while they have already clinched a berth in the Copa Libertadores thanks to their triumph on Sunday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 53.42%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
