Tondela will be aiming to move into the top half of the Primeira Liga when they welcome Gil Vicente to the Joao Cardoso Stadium on Sunday.
The visitors will come into this tie on the back of a 1-0 victory over 10-man Santa Clara, which saw them move out of the relegation playoff spot and into 14th place, while the hosts are 12th, after picking up six wins from 20 games.
Match preview
© Reuters
Midway through the 2020-21 Primeira Liga campaign, both Tondela and Gil Vicente have struggled to get into gear, and they are currently only four and two points respectively above the automatic relegation zone.
After a quick resurgence with three wins from five matches in January, Tondela began February with back-to-back losses, falling to a 2-1 defeat away from home to both Pacos de Ferreira and Rio Ave.
Pako Ayestaran's men bounced back to winning ways in the following outing, as Jhon Murillo and Mario Gonzalez scored in each half to give CDT Auriverdes a 2-1 win over Maritimo on home turf.
However, the hosts were sent crashing down to earth last time out when they fell to a 4-2 loss to third-placed Braga at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
Goals from Joao Novais, Ricardo Horta and a brace from Lucas Piazon put Braga up by four goals, before substitutes Joao Jaquite and Souleymane Anne scored in the final 10 minutes of the game to half the deficit.
Gil Vicente, on the other hand, grabbed a much-needed win over Santa Clara last week, ending their run of consecutive losses to Sporting Lisbon and Portimonense.
In a match where Santa Clara finished with 10 men, 28-year-old midfielder Pedrinho scored a 93rd-minute penalty to give Ricardo Soares's men a 1-0 win and push them out of the relegation zone.
The Roosters have scored the joint-fewest goals in the league with 16 in 20 matches, and they come into this clash struggling on the road. They are ranked 14th in the away form table with one win and six defeats in nine such outings.
However, they are unbeaten against Tondela in their last four meetings, with two wins and two draws dating back to their Taca de Portugal contest back in 2015.
Their last meeting came in September, when Filipe Ferreira's 58th-minute strike cancelled out Samuel Lino's opener to give Vicente a 1-1 draw.
Tondela Primeira Liga form: LWLLWL
Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form: LLWLLW
Gil Vicente form (all competitions): LLLWLL
Team News
© Reuters
Tondela goalkeeper Joel Sousa will sit out this tie as he is in isolation after testing positive for coronavirus last week, but Ayestaran has a full strength squad to pick from other than that.
However, the 58-year-old coach could make some changes to the starting XI that lost to Braga last time out.
Senegalese goalkeeper Babacar Niasse could return between the sticks for the visitors after Pedro Trigueira failed to impress against the Arcebispos.
Jhon Murillo and Pedro Augusto are both one booking away from a match suspension, and they could sit out this tie, meaning Roberto Olabe and Telmo Arcanjo could be given the nod.
On the other hand, Gil Vicente will be without Miullen, who is sidelined with a knee injury.
Club captain Ruben Fernandes and Rodrigao could once again pair up in defence, as Ygor Nogueira still recovers from a slight injury picked up following the clash with Portimonense.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Denis; Paulinho, Rodrigao, Fernandes, Gomes; Pedrinho, Mineiro, Goncalves; Fujimoto, Lino, Lourency
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Bebeto, Medioub, Suarez, Ferreira; Pedro, Grau, Augusto; Agra, Gonzalez, Murillo
We say: Tondela 1-0 Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente are currently on a poor run on the road, and they take on a Tondela side who have been solid at the Joao Cardoso Stadium. They have picked up 20 points from 10 games on home turf and considering the visitors' poor scoring record, we predict the hosts will grab all three points with a clean sheet.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 35.27%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.04%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (12.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
