World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Jan 30, 2022 at 8.05pm UK
BMO Field
Canada2 - 0USA
We said: Canada 2-1 USA
Even without arguably their two most valuable players, the Canadians looked more than comfortable in their previous encounter, and with the pace of Buchanan plus the goalscoring instincts of Jonathan David, the Americans are likely to have their hands full trying to contend with a squad that may be as deep and talented as they have ever been. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for USA had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.41%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Canada | Draw | USA |
| 58.71% | 24.5% | 16.79% |
| Both teams to score 42.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
