Two of the favourites to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF region go head to head at the weekend, as the USA host Canada at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
Both nations started with draws from matches they would have been hoping to win given the calibre of their opponents, so will be looking to earn their first win of this qualifying stage against their neighbours.
Match preview
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After failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, the USA made a host of changes in order to ensure the humiliation did not occur again.
Head coach Gregg Berhalter was appointed as a result and he has overseen a dominant period for the Americans in the CONCACAF region.
Winning the CONCACAF Nations League and the Gold Cup, despite a relatively inexperienced side, earlier this summer are evidence of the progress made under Berhalter since he took charge.
However, beginning the Octagonal stage of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup with a 0-0 draw away to El Salvador earlier in the week was a reminder to the nation as to how difficult it can still be to qualify for the major tournament.
The young side can take plenty of positives though as many youngsters were making their debuts in qualifying action for the Stars and Stripes, as well as a fifth clean sheet in a row.
In fact, only one goal has been conceded by the Americans in their last eight fixtures. Although, only four have been scored in their last five, as a sign of their struggles in front of goal.
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Like their neighbours, Canada also began this round of qualifying with a draw in midweek - a 1-1 draw at home to Honduras.
Playing in front of home fans for the first time in almost two years should have been a boost for the Canadians, but they made hard work of their efforts and only managed a point after a Cyle Larin penalty midway through the second half.
With all of their momentum gained through devastating displays in the earlier rounds of qualifying - 31 goals scored and only one conceded in six wins from six matches - Les Rouges would have been hoping for three points to kickstart the Octagonal stage.
More recently, this weekend's visitors also managed a strong run to the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup earlier this summer, where they eventually lost out to Mexico after a 2-1 defeat.
Canada head to the USA with revenge in sight, after a 4-1 defeat in the States back in 2019 was followed by a 1-0 defeat there earlier in the summer, as the Americans went on to win the Gold Cup.
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Team News
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USA's star man Christian Pulisic missed the draw in El Salvador, as he remained in Nashville to regain fitness, and the Chelsea forward's availability remains in question.
Manchester City spare goalkeeper Zack Steffen also failed to make the trip after suffering with back spasms, so Matt Turner may continue to deputise in goal.
Meanwhile, Canada replaced a struggling Tajon Buchanan at half time against Honduras in the week, with replacement Junior Hoilett impressing in his place, which may earn him a start at the weekend.
Manager John Herdman only made one other change late in that game, despite his side looking for a winner. Therefore, he viewed those 11 on the pitch as his best chance of earning a result so may not make too many changes for the short trip south.
USA possible starting lineup:
Turner; Dest, Brooks, Ream, Robinson; McKennie, Adams, C Roldan; Reyna, Sargent, De la Fuente
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Vitoria, Miller; Hoilett, Hutchinson, Eustaquio, Laryea, Davies; Larin, David
We say: USA 2-0 Canada
We say the USA will continue their good form over neighbours Canada in this one with a fairly comfortable 2-0 win.
Neither side concede many so it could remain tight for long periods of the match but the hosts should have enough quality to get their qualifying campaign up and running.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for Canada had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
