Fresh off a comeback success over Irina-Camelia Begu in Friday's second round, Katie Boulter faces 2023 Indian Wells champion Elena Rybakina in Sunday's third-round match at the BNP Paribas Open.
The British No. 1 player overcame her Romanian opponent in her first match since exiting the Australian Open, and the 28-year-old faces Rybakina this weekend, aiming to avenge a chastening Wimbledon loss in 2023 when she picked up just two games.
Match preview
© Imago
Having had a bye in the opening round, Rybakina was back on court for the first time since falling to Mirra Andreeva in Dubai, and the former world No. 3 carried no residue from that disappointing semi-final exit in the Middle East.
The triumph was the eight-time WTA champion's 14th victory of 2025, and the Kazakhstani star seeks a 15th against a rusty opponent, whose second-round success was the Briton's first match since January.
Rybakina, the Indian Wells champion two years back, could not defend her title last year, meaning the 25-year-old's 6-3, 6-3 success over Suzan Lamens was her seventh on the trot in the Californian desert and 10th overall, and she seeks to improve a 10-2 record at the BNP Paribas Open.
With the seventh seed's last defeat at the event to Maria Sakkari in the 2022 quarter-final, she aims for another deep run in California.
Despite her rustiness, Boulter hopes to rain on the Kazakhstani player's parade to snap the top-10 player's winning run in the desert.
© Imago
The 25th seed and world No. 38 overcame a first-set tie-break disappointment against Begu to clinch sets two and three for a 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-0 success in two hours and 34 minutes.
Having been defeated in previous tournament-opening matches against Jasmine Paolini in 2022 and Camila Giorgi 12 months ago, Friday's triumph was the three-time WTA champion's first main draw success at the event.
That victory came on the British star's first competitive appearance since exiting the Australian Open in three tight sets against Veronika Kudermetova to notch a fifth career triumph at Indian Wells (including qualifying).
However, Boulter has not secured consecutive wins since getting the better of Nadia Podoroska and Olivia Gadecki at the United Cup, with the 28-year-old's quarter-final defeat by Iga Swiatek and the Aussie Open exit sandwiching the Briton's only success over Rebecca Marino in Melbourne before Friday's triumph.
Now up to 4-2 for the season, the world No. 38 aims to record her fifth win in 2025 and sixth overall in the Californian desert to upset one of the pre-Indian Wells favourites.
Tournament so far
Elena Rybakina:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Suzan Lamens 6-3 6-3
Katie Boulter:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Irina-Camelia Begu 6-7[2] 6-3 6-0
Head To Head
Wimbledon (2023) - Third round: Rybakina 6-1 6-1
Both women have faced off once on the women's tour, with Rybakina dispatching Boulter in under an hour in the third round of Wimbledon two years ago — 6-1, 6-1 — on a day where the Briton claimed just two games.
After falling to early losses in consecutive appearances at Indian Wells, Boulter aims for only her second main draw victory at the WTA 1000 event to follow Friday's second-round triumph over Begu.
However, the Briton has fallen to five consecutive defeats against top-10 opponents since beating Jessica Pegula at the United Cup in 2024.
Strikingly, four of said five defeats against the elite have been in straight sets, though she forced a decider against Swiatek in her most recent loss to such opponents at the United Cup quarter-final — the Pole won 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-4.
We say: Rybakina to win in two sets
Although Boulter took a set off Swiatek at the United Cup this season, that was anomalous for the British player, who struggles against the elite players, magnified by a five-match losing run and a 3-13 career record.
Thus, Rybakina, who has won seven straight matches at Indian Wells, should secure an eighth triumph against an opponent who has played little competitively since January.
