Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 36.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.