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Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Melbourne City
Australian A-League | Gameweek 8
Apr 5, 2023 at 10am UK
AAMI Park
Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City
2 - 1
Victory

O'Neill (11', 57')
O'Neill (25'), MacLaren (43')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Velupillay (89')
Miranda (58'), Kamau (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-1 Newcastle Jets
Sunday, April 2 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Victory
Saturday, April 1 at 3am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne City 2-1 Melbourne Victory

Lately, Victory look more organised and compact defensively, but City have the personnel to get through that defensive line and a striker who has rarely been contained over the past few seasons, so we expect the home team will be too much for the visitors to handle this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 0-1 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawMelbourne Victory
63.34% (2.005 2.01) 20.24% (-0.506 -0.51) 16.42% (-1.494 -1.49)
Both teams to score 53.99% (-1.436 -1.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.66% (-0.361 -0.36)41.34% (0.366 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.27% (-0.368 -0.37)63.73% (0.373 0.37)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.58% (0.465 0.47)12.42% (-0.459 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.67% (0.956 0.96)38.33% (-0.951 -0.95)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.65% (-1.975 -1.97)38.35% (1.98 1.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.89% (-1.944 -1.94)75.11% (1.949 1.95)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 63.34%
    Melbourne Victory 16.42%
    Draw 20.25%
Melbourne CityDrawMelbourne Victory
2-0 @ 10.36% (0.521 0.52)
1-0 @ 9.94% (0.335 0.33)
2-1 @ 9.93% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.21% (0.484 0.48)
3-1 @ 6.91% (0.107 0.11)
4-0 @ 3.76% (0.313 0.31)
4-1 @ 3.6% (0.118 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.31% (-0.129 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.73% (-0.036 -0.04)
5-0 @ 1.57% (0.155 0.16)
5-1 @ 1.5% (0.074 0.07)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 63.34%
1-1 @ 9.52% (-0.189 -0.19)
0-0 @ 4.76% (0.078 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.76% (-0.273 -0.27)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 20.25%
0-1 @ 4.57% (-0.173 -0.17)
1-2 @ 4.56% (-0.348 -0.35)
0-2 @ 2.19% (-0.208 -0.21)
2-3 @ 1.52% (-0.176 -0.18)
1-3 @ 1.46% (-0.197 -0.2)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 16.42%

How you voted: Melbourne City vs Victory

Melbourne City
82.0%
Draw
10.0%
Melbourne Victory
8.0%
50
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 8.45am
Victory
3-2
Melbourne City
Da Silva (7'), Fornaroli (46'), Brillante (77')
Chapman (37'), Miranda (68')
Leckie (24', 80')
Tilio (58'), Glover (78'), Leckie (90+6')
Oct 22, 2022 9.45am
Victory
0-2
Melbourne City

Nani (16')
MacLaren (17' pen.), Cadete (19' og.)
Apr 9, 2022 10.45am
Victory
3-0
Melbourne City
Brimmer (7' pen.), Rojas (14', 27')
Marchan (23')

Good (13'), Gomulka (87')
Mar 19, 2022 8.45am
Melbourne City
1-1
Victory
Good (45')
Tilio (42'), Reis (63'), Jenkinson (72'), Colakovski (90')
Rojas (19')
Miranda (29'), D'Agostino (83')
Dec 18, 2021 8.45am
Melbourne City
2-2
Victory
MacLaren (60'), Nabbout (63')
Metcalfe (36'), O'Neill (84'), Berenguer (86'), Jamieson (90+3')
MacLaren (90+6')
Margiotta (12'), D'Agostino (81')
rhs 2.0
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