Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.52%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
53.52% ( 0.08) | 22.06% ( -0.02) | 24.43% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 61.05% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.76% ( 0.06) | 38.24% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.48% ( 0.06) | 60.52% ( -0.06) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.63% ( 0.05) | 14.37% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.75% ( 0.09) | 42.25% ( -0.08) |
Sydney FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.3% ( -0.01) | 28.71% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.47% ( -0.01) | 64.54% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.37% Total : 53.52% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.05% 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.06% | 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 3.39% Total : 24.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
2 | Auckland FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 27 |
3 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
6 | Macarthur | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
7 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 18 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 8 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 5 |
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