Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.89%) and 2-0 (5.35%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.