Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.