Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 52.45%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.52%) and 3-1 (6.39%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.