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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 7
Dec 10, 2022 at 6am UK
Westpac Stadium
Western Sydney Wanderers

Wellington
1 - 1
Western Sydney

Kraev (61')
Ball (78'), Kraev (85'), Ugarkovic (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ngbakoto (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Western Sydney Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wellington 2-3 Western Utd
Sunday, November 13 at 2am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Sydney FC 0-1 Western Sydney
Saturday, November 12 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers

Had this fixture taken place before the World Cup, we would have been backing an away win in convincing fashion. Instead, the lack of match sharpness leads to us predicting a competitive draw, one which would suit Wellington more so than their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.61%. A win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Western Sydney Wanderers win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers
39.61% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04) 23.93% (0.048999999999999 0.05) 36.45% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Both teams to score 61.65% (-0.184 -0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.39% (-0.23699999999999 -0.24)40.6% (0.239 0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.01% (-0.244 -0.24)62.99% (0.245 0.24)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.3% (-0.11999999999999 -0.12)20.7% (0.121 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.7% (-0.192 -0.19)53.3% (0.193 0.19)
Western Sydney Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.74% (-0.111 -0.11)22.26% (0.112 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.29% (-0.166 -0.17)55.7% (0.16800000000001 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 39.61%
    Western Sydney Wanderers 36.45%
    Draw 23.93%
Wellington PhoenixDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 7.26% (0.052 0.05)
2-0 @ 5.72% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.51% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.39% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.78% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.18% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 39.61%
1-1 @ 10.9% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-2 @ 6.45% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.61% (0.05 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.7% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.93%
1-2 @ 8.19% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-1 @ 6.92% (0.052 0.05)
0-2 @ 5.2% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.1% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.23% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 1.54% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-4 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 36.45%

How you voted: Wellington vs Western Sydney

Wellington Phoenix
26.7%
Draw
40.0%
Western Sydney Wanderers
33.3%
15
Head to Head
May 5, 2022 10.05am
Western Sydney
1-2
Wellington
Hemed (29')
Baccus (24'), Troisi (42')
Sutton (3'), Piscopo (65')
Pennington (11'), Sail (89')
Apr 24, 2022 4.05am
Wellington
1-0
Western Sydney
Waine (22')
Pennington (38'), Sotirio (66')

Baccus (13'), Najjarine (45+1'), Hemed (77')
Dec 3, 2021 8.45am
Wellington
0-2
Western Sydney

Hooper (68'), Rufer (77'), Ball (86')
Hemed (66'), Koutroumbis (90+3')
Aquilina (17'), Traore (64')
May 26, 2021 10.05am
Western Sydney
1-2
Wellington
Baccus (28')
Dorrans (50'), Gordon (63')
Ball (24'), Hemed (42')
Fenton (33'), Sutton (36'), Ball (44'), Lewis (90+5')
Mar 15, 2021 8.05am
Western Sydney
4-3
Wellington
Wilmering (23'), Mutch (52'), Duke (65'), Yeboah (84')
Troisi (17'), Gordon (59'), McGowan (63')
Davila (7'), Devlin (32'), Hemed (64' pen.)
Talay (68'), Piscopo (73'), Lewis (77'), Davila (87')
rhs 2.0
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