We said: Tanzania 1-2 Guinea
Tanzania's lack of bite on home soil could once again prove costly, and the margins are slimmer for the hosts as they must win to stay in contention – this leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks, which could be dangerous against a Guinea side boasting one of the world's best strikers, and therefore, we are predicting a victory for the visitors.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 35.22%. A win for Guinea had a probability of 33.87% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.94%) and 2-1 (6.83%). The likeliest Guinea win was 0-1 (13.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tanzania in this match.