Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 18, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Eq Guinea
4 - 2
Guinea-Bissau

Nsue (21', 51', 61'), Miranda (46')
Nlavo (83'), Buyla (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Obiang (37' og.), Correia (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Nigeria 1-1 Eq Guinea
Sunday, January 14 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	1	0	1
3	Nigeria	1	0	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Ivory Coast 2-0 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 13 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	1	0	1
3	Nigeria	1	0	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

We said: Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Guinea-Bissau

Both teams gave good accounts of themselves in their respective opening matches, and we are expecting a keenly-contested affair here. That said, we just about tip Equatorial Guinea to get the job done come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.

Result
Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
40.92% ( -0.02)	29.32% ( -0.08)	29.76% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 42.91% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.31% (

0.3)

63.69% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.03% (

0.21)

82.97% (

-0.21)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.38% (

0.14)

30.62% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.14% (

0.16)

66.86% (

-0.16)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.85% (

0.25)

38.15% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.08% (

0.24)

74.92% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Equatorial Guinea 40.91%

Guinea-Bissau 29.75%

Draw 29.32%

Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Guinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 13.82% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.32% Total : 40.91%	1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.68% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.32%	0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.64% Total : 29.75%