Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 11, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stade Rene Gaillard

Guinea-Bissau
2 - 1
Sierra Leone

de Lacerda (35'), Franculino (48')
Mane (73'), Martinho Silva (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bakayoko (6')
Kakay (23'), Samura (43'), Silva (90+6')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea-Bissau

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Sierra Leone

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

We said: Guinea-Bissau 1-1 Sierra Leone

The reverse fixture between both nations ended 2-2, and Guinea-Bissau could fall short in their aim to claim a fourth victory in qualifying for the first time, with Sierra Leone expected to hold out in Bissau. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sierra Leone
32.37% ( 0.2)	26.67% ( 0.21)	40.96% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 51.32% (

-0.59)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.43% (

-0.79)

53.57% (

0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92% (

-0.67)

75.08% (

0.67)

Guinea-Bissau Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.12% (

-0.26)

30.88% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.84% (

-0.31)

67.16% (

0.32)

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.25% (

-0.57)

25.75% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.31% (

-0.78)

60.69% (

0.78)

Score Analysis

Guinea-Bissau 32.37%

Sierra Leone 40.95%

Draw 26.66%

Guinea-Bissau	Draw	Sierra Leone
1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.37%	1-1 @ 12.67% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.66%	0-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.6% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.33% Total : 40.95%